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Predicting Young WR Success - Footballguys Forums
The ability to run fast and in control...
OK, that is really two factors, or more accurately, the combination of those factors...
(also, prediction in title was kind of a strong term...
I'm thinking more in terms of if the discussed factor gives a better handle on probabilities of success or failure)...
WRs could fail by being fast but out of control and just as surely from being in control but slow...
two of the best contemporary WRs i have seen in this context are marvin harrison & torry holt...
I may not exactly be going out on a limb there...
They are among the best WRs in the league, & probably in league history, and they have many attributes that make them succesful (not just what i cited above)...
no doubt a WR could still fail if they were missing other important traits...
Hands, the toughness and athleticism/agility to escape the jam, the football IQ to run good routes, concentration to catch the ball in traffic, elusiveness, natural RAC ability, etc...
IF those things appear to be in order, AND the WR exhibits the ability to run fast and under control, that would seem like a good prospect to target...
what prompted this whole thread for me is to discuss if this seems like an important factor (combo of), & to think about WRs that might fit this profile...
More vets, and especially the past three draft classes, getting back to using as a predictive tool...
And in past three draft classes, not only the obvious high profile prospects (some who i will name ), but also non-obvious ones...
class of '06 - greg jennings
'07 - calvin johnson
'08 - ?
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'08 - Earl Bennett
Rocky Top Bearcats - (12 team, IDP, High Performance, 40 man roster, Dynasty - 1QB,2RB,3WR/TE,1K,2DL,2LB,2DB,1Dflex,1def,1OL)
QB Rivers, Campbell ;
RB Westbrook, ADP, FWP, Portis, DeWilliams, Selvin, Hunt;
WR/TE Boldin, AJohnson, Branch, Galloway, DHagan, CJackson, MJones, PWilliams;
K Folk;
DL Schobel, Hali, Dumervil, Edwards;
LB Ryans, PWillis, Brackett, Davis, Crowder, Scott, AdThomas;
DB DHall, CRogers, ARolle, Huff, MadWilliams, Meriweather;
Def Bears, Panthers;
OL Cowboys, Redskins
2006 draft: 1.04 DeWilliams, 2.01 Ryans (you guys thought i reached hehe), 2.04 CJackson, 4.04 Huff, 5.04 DHagan, 6.04 Hali
2007 RFA: signed Boldin, OThurman, Madieu Williams ...
Lost Bly
2007 draft: 1.02 ADP, 2.10 PWillis, 4.10 THunt, 5.10 PWilliams, 6.10 Meriweather, 7.10 Darby
2008 RFA's: FWP, AJohnson, Folk, Brackett, AdThomas, Scott, DeHall
2008 draft: picks in rounds 1,2,2,3,3,3,4,5,6,7,7
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Quote: the ability to run fast and in control...
OK, that is really two factors, or more accurately, the combination of those factors...
(also, prediction in title was kind of a strong term...
I'm thinking more in terms of if the discussed factor gives a better handle on probabilities of success or failure)...
WRs could fail by being fast but out of control and just as surely from being in control but slow...
two of the best contemporary WRs i have seen in this context are marvin harrison & torry holt...
I may not exactly be going out on a limb there...
They are among the best WRs in the league, & probably in league history, and they have many attributes that make them succesful (not just what i cited above)...
no doubt a WR could still fail if they were missing other important traits...
Hands, the toughness and athleticism/agility to escape the jam, the football IQ to run good routes, concentration to catch the ball in traffic, elusiveness, natural RAC ability, etc...
IF those things appear to be in order, AND the WR exhibits the ability to run fast and under control, that would seem like a good prospect to target...
what prompted this whole thread for me is to discuss if this seems like an important factor (combo of), & to think about WRs that might fit this profile...
More vets, and especially the past three draft classes, getting back to using as a predictive tool...
And in past three draft classes, not only the obvious high profile prospects (some who i will name ), but also non-obvious ones...
class of '06 - greg jennings
'07 - calvin johnson
'08 - ?
I really like the "speed and control" idea, but the one player who I *really* thought had both of these attributes in spades?
Who I thought would light up the NFL?
Who I thought had great body control?
Who I drafted with confidence in my dynasty league?
Peter Warrick.
Hmph...
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Touche about warrick...
i forget what he had in terms of surrounding talent?
i think he came after carl pickens, his career may have overlapped in part with corey dillon & jeff blake, & may not have had an above average OL or defense during his tenure in CIN...
& not sure where he went after, & how old he was then (SEA?)...
Also, did he have a knee injury or some other leg injuries?
your point was a good one in that it reminds us that football is the ultimate team sport...
There may have been WRs in league history that could have fared much better (or worse), depending on circumstances...
Were they lucky enough to have an at least average to good QB, same for OL, coaching staff that plays to their strengths & designs plays that help them get open, etc...
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Quote: Quote: the ability to run fast and in control...
OK, that is really two factors, or more accurately, the combination of those factors...
(also, prediction in title was kind of a strong term...
I'm thinking more in terms of if the discussed factor gives a better handle on probabilities of success or failure)...
WRs could fail by being fast but out of control and just as surely from being in control but slow...
two of the best contemporary WRs i have seen in this context are marvin harrison & torry holt...
I may not exactly be going out on a limb there...
They are among the best WRs in the league, & probably in league history, and they have many attributes that make them succesful (not just what i cited above)...
no doubt a WR could still fail if they were missing other important traits...
Hands, the toughness and athleticism/agility to escape the jam, the football IQ to run good routes, concentration to catch the ball in traffic, elusiveness, natural RAC ability, etc...
IF those things appear to be in order, AND the WR exhibits the ability to run fast and under control, that would seem like a good prospect to target...
what prompted this whole thread for me is to discuss if this seems like an important factor (combo of), & to think about WRs that might fit this profile...
More vets, and especially the past three draft classes, getting back to using as a predictive tool...
And in past three draft classes, not only the obvious high profile prospects (some who i will name ), but also non-obvious ones...
class of '06 - greg jennings
'07 - calvin johnson
'08 - ?
I really like the "speed and control" idea, but the one player who I *really* thought had both of these attributes in spades?
Who I thought would light up the NFL?
Who I thought had great body control?
Who I drafted with confidence in my dynasty league?
Peter Warrick.
Hmph...
The one thing Warrick lacked in spades is another trait bob listed, "the toughness and athleticism/agility to escape the jam".
I actually think the above is one of the most important building blocks for a WR to be successful in the NFL.
A guy who is a bit under the radar who i don't think any corner can jam consistantly at the line is Roddy White.
Watch how he uses his leverage at the line, it's really amazing.
Guess his all-state wrestling history probably comes in handy in that regard.
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Quote: touche about warrick...
i forget what he had in terms of surrounding talent?
i think he came after carl pickens, his career may have overlapped in part with corey dillon & jeff blake, & may not have had an above average OL or defense during his tenure in CIN...
& not sure where he went after, & how old he was then (SEA?)...
Also, did he have a knee injury or some other leg injuries?
your point was a good one in that it reminds us that football is the ultimate team sport...
There may have been WRs in league history that could have fared much better (or worse), depending on circumstances...
Were they lucky enough to have an at least average to good QB, same for OL, coaching staff that plays to their strengths & designs plays that help them get open, etc...
It's just funny that you created this thread, because I have alway thought that about WRs, too--body control, or playing under control, is just as important as speed.
And, to be fair, I don't think that Warrick was ever a burner.
But man, could he cut in college.
And I still remember a twisting catch he made in the end zone, I think in his last bowl game at FSU.
I thought that he was the goods...
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Quote: Quote: Quote: the ability to run fast and in control...
OK, that is really two factors, or more accurately, the combination of those factors...
(also, prediction in title was kind of a strong term...
I'm thinking more in terms of if the discussed factor gives a better handle on probabilities of success or failure)...
WRs could fail by being fast but out of control and just as surely from being in control but slow...
two of the best contemporary WRs i have seen in this context are marvin harrison & torry holt...
I may not exactly be going out on a limb there...
They are among the best WRs in the league, & probably in league history, and they have many attributes that make them succesful (not just what i cited above)...
no doubt a WR could still fail if they were missing other important traits...
Hands, the toughness and athleticism/agility to escape the jam, the football IQ to run good routes, concentration to catch the ball in traffic, elusiveness, natural RAC ability, etc...
IF those things appear to be in order, AND the WR exhibits the ability to run fast and under control, that would seem like a good prospect to target...
what prompted this whole thread for me is to discuss if this seems like an important factor (combo of), & to think about WRs that might fit this profile...
More vets, and especially the past three draft classes, getting back to using as a predictive tool...
And in past three draft classes, not only the obvious high profile prospects (some who i will name ), but also non-obvious ones...
class of '06 - greg jennings
'07 - calvin johnson
'08 - ?
I really like the "speed and control" idea, but the one player who I *really* thought had both of these attributes in spades?
Who I thought would light up the NFL?
Who I thought had great body control?
Who I drafted with confidence in my dynasty league?
Peter Warrick.
Hmph...
The one thing Warrick lacked in spades is another trait bob listed, "the toughness and athleticism/agility to escape the jam".
I actually think the above is one of the most important building blocks for a WR to be successful in the NFL.
A guy who is a bit under the radar who i don't think any corner can jam consistantly at the line is Roddy White.
Watch how he uses his leverage at the line, it's really amazing.
Guess his all-state wrestling history probably comes in handy in that regard.
thanx for alluding to athleticism and "cross-training", moderated...
i'm big on looking at if football players competed at a high level in other sports, & how those other skills might bear on football...
& not just at WR...
One reason i was high on NO DE charles grant (& he hasn't always met my expectations in recent seasons based on his first two with saints, but some of that may have been injury related, & in another surrounding cast point, he has been without a great DT for most/all of his tenure in NO)...
He broke or tied GA state record in rushing TDs (season, career?), since broken i think by at least darius walker...
i'm not sure how great a pro baseball prospect desean jackson was, & if he could have made it to the big leagues, but he was reportedly very good, & he has body control that stands out on his highlights...
That part bodes well, but we will see if he will fall for lack of some other critical missing element in the toolbox or constellation of traits that point to success...
And if PHI does things like put him in motion to make it easier to get clean release...
the point about white's wrestling background & how that translates to usefull skills on the football field was an excellent one, and should be a thread in itself (& not limited to WR)...
NE OG neal competed at a high level in college as a wrestler (national champ?), & that has obvious relevance to skill needed by OL...
Again, there must be many great wrestlers that would probably be flops as NFL OL, but IF they show other important traits needed to succeed at their position, & are tracking nicely as pros in first season or two, i always like to hear what they have done athletically in the past, in order to help gain greater insight into how their future career might unfold...
i think CIN OL stacy andrews (brother of PHI OL) was a great track athlete, possibly in shot put...
Success there or in a track weight event like discuss would suggest good explosion & footwork...
his name escapes me, but SF in super bowl years had a great DT that was exceptional in shot put or discus, & may have set TX (& even national) record (michael ?)...
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Quote: i'm not sure how great a pro baseball prospect desean jackson was, & if he could have made it to the big leagues, but he was reportedly very good, & he has body control that stands out on his highlights...
That part bodes well, but we will see if he will fall for lack of some other critical missing element in the toolbox or constellation of traits that point to success...
And if PHI does things like put him in motion to make it easier to get clean release...
funny that you mention Jackson, he's the first one I thought of when you mentioned speed + control.
You're right that there are other concerns.
Doesn't speed + control correlate to return duties as well?
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Quote: Quote: i'm not sure how great a pro baseball prospect desean jackson was, & if he could have made it to the big leagues, but he was reportedly very good, & he has body control that stands out on his highlights...
That part bodes well, but we will see if he will fall for lack of some other critical missing element in the toolbox or constellation of traits that point to success...
And if PHI does things like put him in motion to make it easier to get clean release...
funny that you mention Jackson, he's the first one I thought of when you mentioned speed + control.
You're right that there are other concerns.
Doesn't speed + control correlate to return duties as well?
absolutely that would be important in a return context...
Otherwise they would be running into backs of blockers & into defenders...
it is also important to point out that just as there are factors that point towards success, so to there are factors that could foreshadow failure...
as has been pointed out elsewhere, at about 5'9" 170, jackson is tiny, & it is hard to think of very many (any?) WRs that have succeeded at a high level with that dimunitive of a stature...
So if he stays that size, it could be a deal breaker...
i think santana moss put on about 20 lbs since he entered the league, so i'm not assuming jackson can't put on weight...
If he could add 10-15 lbs in a few years, he might have similar frame to harrison (but shorter by a 3")...
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